Hilton Head Island, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXUS62 KCHS 061128
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
728 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Coastal flooding and significant coastal hazards are expected
  during the middle of this week.

- 2) Cooler temperatures along with breezy conditions are
  expected during the middle of this week.

- 3) NHC has identified a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf
  with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
  next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
  develop over the Southeast United States by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Coastal flooding and significant coastal hazards are
expected during the middle of this week.

Coastal Flooding: Strong northeast winds associated with a wedge of
high pressure inland and low pressure offshore in combination with
high astronomical tide levels will likely support coastal flooding
issues during high tide cycles today through Thursday and possibly
into Friday.

For Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties, the greatest risk for
coastal flooding is expected with late afternoon/early evening high
tide cycles today and Wednesday with moderate saltwater inundation
possible (~7.5 ft MLLW at Charleston Harbor, SC). Additionally,
minor coastal flooding is possible during morning high tide cycles
Wednesday and Thursday, and could possibly continue into Friday.
Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be issued starting later today.

For Beaufort, SC to McIntosh, GA Counties, the greatest risk for
coastal flooding is expected with late afternoon/early evening high
tide cycles today and Wednesday (~9.5 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski, GA).
Coastal Flood Advisories could be issued later today for this area.

Rip Currents/High Surf/Beach Erosion: The setup remains highly
favorable for strong to dangerous rip currents today and Wednesday
with breezy/gusty northeast winds expected. In addition, seas will
build across nearshore waters, with 4-7 ft breakers occurring in the
surf zone (largest along coastal Georgia) starting this afternoon
and persisting into Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory has been issued
from noon today through early Wednesday afternoon along the entire
coast as a result, and could eventually need to be extended longer
along Georgia beaches into later Wednesday. Significant beach
erosion is likely with guidance suggesting highest chances for
impacts around the afternoon/early evening high tide cycle
today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures along with breezy conditions are
expected during the middle of this week.

Today: A strong 1025mb surface high pressure is sliding
southeastwards out of the Great Lakes region and towards the
northeast coast, while an area of low pressure attempts to develop
along the front south of the region over the Atlantic during the
morning. Previously, models had shown higher confidence in that area
of low pressure turning into an actual surface low, with that
scenario trending less likely rather significantly with the recent
runs. As a result, the strongest winds have decreased due to the
lowered surface pressure gradient. Areas well away from the coast
are still expected to see gusts to near 20 mph, while those along
the coast may see gusts to 35 mph, especially along southeast
Georgia beaches where the surface pressure gradient looks to be
highest. Winds on Lake Moultrie are now expected to remain just
below Lake Wind criteria of sustained 20 knot winds or gusts greater
than 25 knots, but will continue to be monitored.

In addition to the breezy winds, temperatures will remain below
normal today as h925 temperatures in the 15-17 deg C range will keep
temperatures limited to the mid to upper 70s. Lastly, rain chances
will be low for majority of the region today as dry air filters in
from the north, with precipitable water values below an inch for
areas from Millen, GA to Summerville, SC to Georgetown, SC and
northwards. Areas from Reidsville, GA to Hilton Head, SC and
southward have pwats remaining above 1.5", and as weak shortwaves
make their way around the base of the trough some light to moderate
rain will be possible. Not expecting more than a couple tenths.

Wednesday: The surface high pressure weakens as it slides down the
east coast throughout the day, with the aforementioned area of low
pressure pushed further south offshore of FL. This will result in
weaker winds than we have for Tuesday, with gusts remaining below 20
mph for most, though areas along the coast may still gusts to near
25 mph. The exception remains across far southeast Georgia along the
coast, where gusts to near 30 mph will remain possible due to the
tightened pressure gradient. Chances for rainfall remain low as dry
low-mid levels overspread the area.

Thursday-Friday: As weak ridging occurs aloft, dry northeasterly
surface flow keeps the region dry, with another surface high
pressure moving across the Ohio River Valley on Friday towards the
northeast coast. Winds may again become breezy on Friday, with
rainfall chances remaining uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 3: NHC has identified a disturbance in the southwestern
Gulf with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
develop over the Southeast United States by this weekend.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Gulf during the next 48 hours, possibly becoming more organized and
deepening while tracking northeast across the Gulf late week.
Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture will likely be
drawn northward across the Southeast United States with PWATs
exceeding 2 inches locally. A wedge of high pressure will likely be
in place across the Carolinas and Georgia while coastal troughing
takes shape off the coast this weekend, supporting widespread
isentropic lift across the region and the potential for heavy
rainfall closer to the coast, especially as a weak front/coastal low
passes nearby late weekend/early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHS/JZI: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 12Z
Wednesday. However, breezy/gusty northeast winds will develop
at the terminals by around 14Z this morning and generally peak
in the 20-25 kt range this afternoon into early evening hours
(18-23Z). Northeast winds could remain slightly gusty through
06Z Wednesday, generally in the 10-15 kt range at CHS and in the
15-20 kt range at JZI, before remaining at or below 10 kt
through 12Z Wednesday.

SAV: Low-end MVFR conditions are possible during the next couple
hours as low clouds impact the terminal through ~14Z. High-end
MVFR cigs should then prevail mid morning into early afternoon
hours. Gusty northeast winds are expected by around 15z this
morning and should generally peak between 20-25 kt this afternoon
into early evening (18-23Z). Light showers could also impact
the terminal during this time, potentially leading to TEMPO MVFR
cigs. At this time, VCSH still remains with no restrictions. Northeast
could then remain gusty through 06Z Wednesday, generally in the
15-20 kt range, before remaining at or below 10 kt through 12Z
Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through late week. Breezy winds
possible at all terminals on Wednesday. The risk for flight
restrictions returns over the weekend with increasing chances
for showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Marine conditions are expected to quickly
deteriorate throughout the morning hours as a wedge of high
pressure settles in, with an area of low pressure developing
along a stalled front to our south. Previously, models had shown
higher confidence in that area of low pressure turning into an
actual surface low, with that scenario trending less likely
rather significantly with the recent model runs. As a result,
the strongest winds have decreased due to the lowered surface
pressure gradient, with a longer period of Small Craft Advisory
level winds (25-34 knot gusts) occurring prior to the potential
for gale force winds (34+ knots) developing. The probability for
gale force winds remains above 60% across our nearshore and
offshore waters, primarily from 2 PM through midnight, so have
left the Gale Warnings in place but did trim off a couple hours
on the expiration times.

So for today, expect northeasterly winds to strengthen throughout
the morning hours, likely seeing gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range by
daybreak. 6 foot waves build in quickly due to the breezy
conditions, with 4-7 ft waves along the coast throughout the
afternoon and 10 foot waves in the 20-60 nm offshore zones from
Edisto Beach, SC to Altamaha Sound, GA. The surface pressure
gradient is expected to peak this afternoon into the evening hours
producing sustained winds near 30 knots and gusts of 35 to 38 knots.
The gradient is expected to weaken overnight, though still strong
enough to produce gusts of 25 to 34 knots across all nearshore and
offshore zones, so expect Small Craft Advisories to replace the Gale
Warnings when they expire, where appropriate. For the Charleston
Harbor, the Small Craft Advisory expires at 10 PM.

Wednesday-Saturday: The pinched surface pressure gradient continues
into Wednesday, though the gradient does weaken throughout the day.
Expect gusts of 25 to 30 knots throughout the morning hours across
all zones, with winds weakening from north to south throughout the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Seas will similarly subside
from north to south Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon,
allowing for the expected advisories to expire. Another surface high
pressure may setup along the northeast coast on Friday, potentially
increasing wind speeds and wave heights across local waters into
Saturday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Metter, GA, NOAA Weather Radio Station (WWH-25) will be
offline from mid-morning Wednesday, October 7, through the
afternoon of Thursday, October 8. The transmitter is being
relocated.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151.
     High Surf Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360-362-380.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ364-382-384.

&&

$$

APT/DPB